There are lessons to be learned at the state level regarding Ann Nischke's loss to Larry Nelson in Waukesha's mayoral election this past Tuesday.
According to Jessica McBride...
This, of course, is the usual answer from the right wing of the party. When Republicans lose, it's always because they aren't conservative enough. If they just pandered more to the extremists, they'd find a near-limitless supply of votes with which to overwhelm liberals and moderates.
Here's the thing. Who didn't know in that race that Ann Nischke was the Republican and Larry Nelson was the Democrat? Come on, Jessica. I enjoy your blog, but you've got to be kidding. Ann Nischke was practically cloaked in the Sykes/Belling agenda. Everyone in Waukesha knew who the Republican was and who the Democrat was. Besides, Ann Nischke shouldn't have had to have done a damn thing to win a race in a part of the state that is overwhelmingly conservative. The fact that she was the Republican should've been enough. And guess what? It wasn't.
Do you really think saying something twenty times instead of five times would've made a difference? Do you believe that the generally well-educated voters of Waukesha need everything repeated to them twenty times in order for it to stick? Your argument basically assumes that Waukesha voters are too stupid to get it the first time. I don't buy that.
Somewhere Joe Wineke is smiling right now. The Nischke debacle forces Republicans to contemplate the very issue that Jessica stakes out a position on: when Republicans start losing, should the party move to the middle or to the right? And the wrong answer could be catastrophic.
Scott Jensen was successful in picking up just about every Assembly seat a Republican could possibly pick up given the lines on the map. The Gronemus seat will be competitive, but only after she retires. Molepske, Seidel, and Nelson are all safe. Republicans couldn't beat Gary Sherman two years ago with a Democrat in sheep's clothing. David Cullen will be fine. There's just no fruit left on the tree.
At this point, most everyone seems resigned to the fact that it will be nearly impossible for the Assembly GOP to hold all of its seats. In fact, the number of second-tier races - races that aren't among the most competitive but are still potential problem spots - is staggering.
I would love to see the zealots tell us how their agenda is good for Brett Davis. Or the open seats vacated by Andy Lamb and Gregg Underheim. The Pettis seat is always in play, and there are half a dozen other seats that could potentially be in play depending on what issues stick in the campaign and how hard the candidates are willing to work.
Senate Republicans, meanwhile, should consider breaking even a major victory. To do that, they have to hold Brown, Leibham, Zien, and Reynolds and get McReynolds elected to the Stepp seat. Once again, there's nothing competitive on the Democratic side of the board.
This year isn't about Republican gains. It's about Republicans weathering the storm. And you don't weather the storm by abandoning moderate voters. Pushing TPA, being way out in front in supporting the same-sex marriage amendment, well, that might be fine in southeast Wisconsin. Maybe it'll help Scott Newcomer break 70%. But on a statewide level, it does the Republicans no good to win safe seats by bigger margins if it means sacrificing people in swing districts.
If you're a Republican, this election shouldn't be about being a RINO or not being a RINO. It should be about making sure that Republicans still have a majority in the Legislature. All those RINOs are the reason that Republicans are in the majority in the first place.
Granted, there are some out there who would rather have an ideologically pure minority than a functioning majority that has to compromise with itself occasionally but is actually able to deliver on a lot of issues. I think those people are crazy, but they're entitled to their opinions. I'm just glad that they're not the ones with their hands on the wheel. I think most Republican legislators, staff, and lobbyists are also thankful for that.
The issues this fall already trend away from Republicans. As the economy improves, concerns almost always shift away from taxes and fiscal issues towards softer issues like health care and education - issues where polls usually show strength for Democrats.
On those two issues, Republicans are woefully short of high profile bills or high profile ideas. That school choice compromise does nothing for outstate Republicans. Believe it or not, voters in Mary Williams' or Gene Hahn's districts don't care about schools in Milwaukee. They care about what their legislators are doing to help their own school districts.
Things will only become more difficult for Legislative Republicans if Mark Green is elected in November. If Green is elected and gets a Republican Assembly and Senate, I can almost assure you that voters will return one of those bodies to Democratic hands in 2008 unless Green moves to the middle and saves the Legislature from itself. If you think Republicans can win in '08 after a bunch of tax cuts for businesses, greater restrictions on abortion, and concealed carry, you're nuts. Positively nuts.
One of the strengths the GOP has exploited in the last decade is that is has done a far better job in recruiting candidates for swing seats than Democrats. Joe Wineke is the guy who could start to change that. The fact that he actually has field experience makes him an immeasurable improvement over his predecessor. If politics is a pendulum, all signs are that it's starting to swing in the opposite direction.
Jessica seems to believe that the answer to Republican difficulties, at least in Nischke's case, is for Republicans to be more conservative. That's fine. She's a smart woman and is entitled to her opinion. I'm certain she's not alone in that belief.
I'm just here to remind those of you that agree with her that "more conservative" will almost certainly mean "fast track to the minority" in the state legislature. So be careful what you wish for. You might get it, only to find out that it sucks.
According to Jessica McBride...
Only [Laurel Walker], who sees Waukesha through Lefty colored glasses would interpret the race this way. Nischke lost because she didn't highlight Vrakas, Kanavas and similar conservative supporters enough (although Vrakas' conservative credentials need burnishing himself right now). She lost because she didn't talk about her opponent's opposition to the TPA and tax freeze enough.
This, of course, is the usual answer from the right wing of the party. When Republicans lose, it's always because they aren't conservative enough. If they just pandered more to the extremists, they'd find a near-limitless supply of votes with which to overwhelm liberals and moderates.
Here's the thing. Who didn't know in that race that Ann Nischke was the Republican and Larry Nelson was the Democrat? Come on, Jessica. I enjoy your blog, but you've got to be kidding. Ann Nischke was practically cloaked in the Sykes/Belling agenda. Everyone in Waukesha knew who the Republican was and who the Democrat was. Besides, Ann Nischke shouldn't have had to have done a damn thing to win a race in a part of the state that is overwhelmingly conservative. The fact that she was the Republican should've been enough. And guess what? It wasn't.
Do you really think saying something twenty times instead of five times would've made a difference? Do you believe that the generally well-educated voters of Waukesha need everything repeated to them twenty times in order for it to stick? Your argument basically assumes that Waukesha voters are too stupid to get it the first time. I don't buy that.
Somewhere Joe Wineke is smiling right now. The Nischke debacle forces Republicans to contemplate the very issue that Jessica stakes out a position on: when Republicans start losing, should the party move to the middle or to the right? And the wrong answer could be catastrophic.
Scott Jensen was successful in picking up just about every Assembly seat a Republican could possibly pick up given the lines on the map. The Gronemus seat will be competitive, but only after she retires. Molepske, Seidel, and Nelson are all safe. Republicans couldn't beat Gary Sherman two years ago with a Democrat in sheep's clothing. David Cullen will be fine. There's just no fruit left on the tree.
At this point, most everyone seems resigned to the fact that it will be nearly impossible for the Assembly GOP to hold all of its seats. In fact, the number of second-tier races - races that aren't among the most competitive but are still potential problem spots - is staggering.
I would love to see the zealots tell us how their agenda is good for Brett Davis. Or the open seats vacated by Andy Lamb and Gregg Underheim. The Pettis seat is always in play, and there are half a dozen other seats that could potentially be in play depending on what issues stick in the campaign and how hard the candidates are willing to work.
Senate Republicans, meanwhile, should consider breaking even a major victory. To do that, they have to hold Brown, Leibham, Zien, and Reynolds and get McReynolds elected to the Stepp seat. Once again, there's nothing competitive on the Democratic side of the board.
This year isn't about Republican gains. It's about Republicans weathering the storm. And you don't weather the storm by abandoning moderate voters. Pushing TPA, being way out in front in supporting the same-sex marriage amendment, well, that might be fine in southeast Wisconsin. Maybe it'll help Scott Newcomer break 70%. But on a statewide level, it does the Republicans no good to win safe seats by bigger margins if it means sacrificing people in swing districts.
If you're a Republican, this election shouldn't be about being a RINO or not being a RINO. It should be about making sure that Republicans still have a majority in the Legislature. All those RINOs are the reason that Republicans are in the majority in the first place.
Granted, there are some out there who would rather have an ideologically pure minority than a functioning majority that has to compromise with itself occasionally but is actually able to deliver on a lot of issues. I think those people are crazy, but they're entitled to their opinions. I'm just glad that they're not the ones with their hands on the wheel. I think most Republican legislators, staff, and lobbyists are also thankful for that.
The issues this fall already trend away from Republicans. As the economy improves, concerns almost always shift away from taxes and fiscal issues towards softer issues like health care and education - issues where polls usually show strength for Democrats.
On those two issues, Republicans are woefully short of high profile bills or high profile ideas. That school choice compromise does nothing for outstate Republicans. Believe it or not, voters in Mary Williams' or Gene Hahn's districts don't care about schools in Milwaukee. They care about what their legislators are doing to help their own school districts.
Things will only become more difficult for Legislative Republicans if Mark Green is elected in November. If Green is elected and gets a Republican Assembly and Senate, I can almost assure you that voters will return one of those bodies to Democratic hands in 2008 unless Green moves to the middle and saves the Legislature from itself. If you think Republicans can win in '08 after a bunch of tax cuts for businesses, greater restrictions on abortion, and concealed carry, you're nuts. Positively nuts.
One of the strengths the GOP has exploited in the last decade is that is has done a far better job in recruiting candidates for swing seats than Democrats. Joe Wineke is the guy who could start to change that. The fact that he actually has field experience makes him an immeasurable improvement over his predecessor. If politics is a pendulum, all signs are that it's starting to swing in the opposite direction.
Jessica seems to believe that the answer to Republican difficulties, at least in Nischke's case, is for Republicans to be more conservative. That's fine. She's a smart woman and is entitled to her opinion. I'm certain she's not alone in that belief.
I'm just here to remind those of you that agree with her that "more conservative" will almost certainly mean "fast track to the minority" in the state legislature. So be careful what you wish for. You might get it, only to find out that it sucks.
6 comments:
A very thoughtful and interesting post . . . I'm curious to hear more about your opinions on which seats might be in play besides the ones you mentioned.
In my humble opinion, Ann Nischke lost that seat becuase people took it for granted. Nobody got out to the polls! It sure seems the ground game wasn't up to speed either. Maybe poor management?
If you don't like these people why are you giving them such good advice? And be careful, you're betraying way too much knowledge of obscure insider information. Political amateurs will often irritate political professionals, so try not to be too hard on these poor people.
By Rich Eggleston
What happened in Waukesha was a victory of local politics over state politics.
Voters rejected the infusion of state politics -- worse, out-of-state politics -- into a race for the job of making sure the garbage gets picked up, the potholes get filled and the sewage gets treated.
Local officials can't afford to sit in an ivory tower and agree to govern by formula instead of common sense. A majority of the voters recognized that. The peddlers of out-of-state Rube Goldberg contraptions to fix Wisconsin's tax system (the Republican marketing types who want to sell government like they sell corn flakes) got a rude awakening.
The voters told them to go take a hike.
Thanks for your spin, Rich, unlike Recess Supervisor, you consistently don't have a clue. Journalism school just doesn't lead to savvy about voters and government. Good thing you're being paid to give these "opinions" anyway.
I always hated recess.
Change is in the air. Why isn't there a Democrat running against Nischke for the 97th?
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