Not that it should come as a surprise to anyone - this was a preferred strategy of Tommy Thompson, after all - but I've been hearing rumblings that the Doyle administration may be playing ball with as many as three legislative Republicans, offering them better paying jobs in the administration. This, of course, would obligate them to resign their positions in the Legislature, opening the door for special elections in the spring.
I'm not in a position to name names, but think about this logically for a moment. Take a guy like Gene Hahn, for example. It's almost certain that this would be Hahn's last term in the Assembly, considering that it reportedly took a lot of cajoling and arm-twisting from John Gard just to get him to run this fall. If Doyle offered you a $70K a year job in an agency, why wouldn't you take it? It's $25K a year more than you make in the Legislature (not counting per diem and mileage). Your WRS pension is based on your length of service and the average of your three highest annual wages, so a stint in the administration provides a nice retirement bump too.
Senate Republicans are resigned to doing nothing but bitch for at least the next two years - probably longer, considering Sheila Harsdorf, Dan Kapanke, and Alberta Darling are all but certainly facing difficult reelection battles in two years. The Assembly Republican majority is barely existent and guaranteed to be almost totally dysfunctional. What's the incentive to stick around?
Meanwhile, Democrats are on a roll and would likely face decent odds in all of the following seats. Consider them all possibilities for offers from the Doyle gravy train. Will Doyle be successful in his efforts? We'll know in the coming weeks.
Gene Hahn: Nearing retirement anyway. Little incentive to stick around.
Brett Davis: Won by fewer than 250 votes in a district that the Democrats could almost certainly pick up if the seat were open. With Pettis gone, is now the wearer of the Rick Skindrud Memorial Bullseye as the lowest of the low hanging fruit on the tree.
Mary Williams: Won by fewer than 225 votes. Democrats would be extremely competitive in a special.
Karl Van Roy: Like Hahn, widely rumored to be considering retirement in 2008. Good friend Judy Krawczyk sent packing. Historically, a conservative Democrat would almost certainly have an edge in a special.
Lee Nerison: Won by 2 points in a district that keeps leaning further to the Democrats. In for an even tougher race in 2008. Might see the writing on the wall.
Dan Kapanke: For someone who's a doer, may find life in the minority to be less than fulfilling. Senate Republicans aren't likely to be leaving the minority before 2010. Alternatively, Kapanke could pull a Mark Meyer and simply opt to not run for reelection in 2008 - another possibility being whispered about.
Dale Schultz: As a moderate and a coalition builder, Senate Republicans are ill-equipped to use his skills in the minority. Democrats now control two of the three Assembly seats in his district, and Democrats have dominated in statewide races as of late. After 24 years in the Legislature, could be ready for a new challenge.
I'm not in a position to name names, but think about this logically for a moment. Take a guy like Gene Hahn, for example. It's almost certain that this would be Hahn's last term in the Assembly, considering that it reportedly took a lot of cajoling and arm-twisting from John Gard just to get him to run this fall. If Doyle offered you a $70K a year job in an agency, why wouldn't you take it? It's $25K a year more than you make in the Legislature (not counting per diem and mileage). Your WRS pension is based on your length of service and the average of your three highest annual wages, so a stint in the administration provides a nice retirement bump too.
Senate Republicans are resigned to doing nothing but bitch for at least the next two years - probably longer, considering Sheila Harsdorf, Dan Kapanke, and Alberta Darling are all but certainly facing difficult reelection battles in two years. The Assembly Republican majority is barely existent and guaranteed to be almost totally dysfunctional. What's the incentive to stick around?
Meanwhile, Democrats are on a roll and would likely face decent odds in all of the following seats. Consider them all possibilities for offers from the Doyle gravy train. Will Doyle be successful in his efforts? We'll know in the coming weeks.
Gene Hahn: Nearing retirement anyway. Little incentive to stick around.
Brett Davis: Won by fewer than 250 votes in a district that the Democrats could almost certainly pick up if the seat were open. With Pettis gone, is now the wearer of the Rick Skindrud Memorial Bullseye as the lowest of the low hanging fruit on the tree.
Mary Williams: Won by fewer than 225 votes. Democrats would be extremely competitive in a special.
Karl Van Roy: Like Hahn, widely rumored to be considering retirement in 2008. Good friend Judy Krawczyk sent packing. Historically, a conservative Democrat would almost certainly have an edge in a special.
Lee Nerison: Won by 2 points in a district that keeps leaning further to the Democrats. In for an even tougher race in 2008. Might see the writing on the wall.
Dan Kapanke: For someone who's a doer, may find life in the minority to be less than fulfilling. Senate Republicans aren't likely to be leaving the minority before 2010. Alternatively, Kapanke could pull a Mark Meyer and simply opt to not run for reelection in 2008 - another possibility being whispered about.
Dale Schultz: As a moderate and a coalition builder, Senate Republicans are ill-equipped to use his skills in the minority. Democrats now control two of the three Assembly seats in his district, and Democrats have dominated in statewide races as of late. After 24 years in the Legislature, could be ready for a new challenge.
2 comments:
How about Terry Moulton, assuming the Dems could actually find a better candidate than a 26-year-old janitor? (No offense to Michael Turner, he deserves credit for stepping up).
The wildcard to this process is WMC. When TT paid Marvin Roshell to leave his Senate seat he didn't have to deal with outside parties willing to firebomb the media with money in order to hold it for the Dems. That's not the case for Doyle. And especially for an important special election (and when the margins are tight they are all important) when they can focus all their attention in one spot.
As for Moulton, his wildcard is his election week angioplasty. He will likely be there another two years and no longer. He might be receptive to being paid to leave. Or maybe he'll leave all on his own.
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