It appears as though evangelical voters are still shopping for a candidate, as one of their biggest shepherds, James Dobson, has declared the great white hope, Fred Thompson, to be something everyone else already knew he was: lazy.
Said Dobson, "(Thompson) has no passion, no zeal, and no apparent ‘want to.’" Of course, Jim. It's his wife who wants to be president. He just wants to play one on the teevee. That's what he does. He acts.
Thompson continues to maintain a
leisurely pace on the campaign trail, preferring to focus on raising money a few times a week instead of actually meeting voters. The Nashville Post is
pleading with him to get off his ass and dispel his fairly (or unfairly) earned reputation. His bump is beginning to wear off. And of course, there was that train wreck last week in South Carolina, where Thompson admitted to the world that he doesn't really go to church. Great way to win over those southern, churchgoing voters.
Clearly, nobody is good enough for the religious right, so much so that Dobson has been singing the praises of Newt Gingrich lately. Gingrich would be, far and away, the smartest individual in the GOP race, should he opt to go that route in the next month or two. Many of us would love for him to run. Hell, if Newt ran, I'd vote for him. After seven years of a bumbling fool in the White House, Gingrich could be the guy to show America that Republicans aren't all a bunch of anti-intellectual neanderthals. But Gingrich, a twice-divorced adulterer, is hardly an angel in terms of his own personal life.
The humor here is that the candidate who is probably the best conservative option, John McCain, has fallen so completely out of favor with the base over matters like McCain-Feingold that have virtually no effect on any of their lives relative to other important issues. On every issue of traditional importance to be base, McCain and McCain alone is among the best options among major contenders.
Let's take a look at the five biggest issues that social conservatives usually take into account when looking for a candidate to support.
FAITH:John McCain: Baptist. Or Episcopalian. Guess it depends on when you ask him or what state he's campaigning in. Goes to church on a semi-regular basis.
Rudy Giuliani: Catholic, and like many Catholics, doesn't go to church, is pro-choice, and cheats on his wives. But at least he's not fondling the altar boys.
Mitt Romney: Stormin' Mormon.
Fred Thompson: Too lazy to go to church. Prefers to let other family members go to church, then distill the major themes into simple, easy-to-read talking points.
WINNER: Romney. If he weren't a Mormon, there wouldn't even be a question about who the evangelicals are supporting.
PERSONAL LIFE:John McCain: Messy divorce, got remarried a month later to a wealthy heiress 18 years his junior.
Rudy Giuliani: Married a cousin, got an annulment. Moved in with another woman before the annulment was final. Cheated on her a few times, then announced at a press conference that they were separated, but never bothered to inform her beforehand. Married his mistress. Does, however, marry women his own age. And slept with a relative, which could earn him sympathy points in the south.
Mitt Romney: One wife, but probably would have many had his faith not sold polygamy down the river in exchange for statehood.
Fred Thompson: Knocked up his girlfriend in high school, but had the decency to marry her. Got divorced a whole bunch of years later. Married a trophy wife 24 years younger than him who really wants to be president. But on the upside, didn't cheat with wife number two while married to wife number one, probably because wife number two was barely legal when he divorced wife number one.
WINNER: Hmmmm. None of the above?
ABORTION:John McCain: Opposes abortion with the usual rape/incest/life of mother exceptions. Supports stem cell research. Has been fairly consistent in his positions.
Rudy Giuliani: Baby killer.
Mitt Romney: FLIP FLOPPER!
Fred Thompson: Worked for the baby killers.
WINNER: McCain. He's generally pro-life, and at least he's been predictable on the issue. He probably won't lead the charge, but none of these guys will. McCain's at least been a reliable vote.
TAXES/SPENDING:John McCain: Hates pork.
Rudy Giuliani: Cut taxes as mayor, put the kibosh on $6 billion in spending requests by the Board of Education.
Mitt Romney: Um, universal health care, anyone?
Fred Thompson: Made a living lobbying for pork.
WINNER: Giuliani, with McCain a close second.
GUNS:John McCain: Supports a broad interpretation of the Second Amendment but supported background checks for buyers at gun shows.
Rudy Giuliani: Hates guns unless it's the police using them.
Mitt Romney: Formerly support strong anti-gun laws, now a member of the NRA. Is there *anything* this guy won't say to get elected? FLIP FLOPPER!
Fred Thompson: I <3 guns.
WINNER: Thompson, with McCain a close second.
Giuliani's consistent lead in the polls is proving that this is a primary in which you don't have to say the right things on every issue. Enough Republicans appear to take points from Giuliani for being pro-choice, only to give those points right back to him for being honest and straightforward about his position. Either that, or lots of GOP voters just don't place a premium on the abortion/gun issue these days relative to other issues like taxes or national security.
Sure, the campaign finance bill that bears McCain's name may not help with those who love their issue ads, but that alone won't be a death knell. He's low on money, but then again, so was Bill Clinton in September of 1991.
And save for Giuliani, who appears permanently camped out at around 28%, there's still a lot of fluidity in the Republican numbers. The Romney campaign is fading fast, which is no surprise. McCain is beginning to get his feet under him again, and surely a number of conservatives have found Thompson to be a more genuine article than Romney. Some would be reluctant to write off Romney, but I'm not. Romney's done unless the contest ends after the Iowa caucus.
When it comes to Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson, Thompson's resume is certainly the lightest and least substantive. He's the Barack Obama of the Republican primary, running on image and precious little else. Certainly, Thompson's opening foray into the campaign has not gone quite as planned. Instead of working for people's votes, he seems content to smile, make a few appearances a week, and wait for his dogs to round up all the sheep. We'll see how that works in a primary. It sure as hell won't work in a general.
I'm not suggesting that I think McCain will be nominee. He still has some organizational issues, and his fundraising numbers for Q3 will probably disappoint. But in a race as crazy as this one, well, stranger things have happened. The guy's campaign is running on fumes, and he's still managed to surge ahead of Romney, who's spent more than anyone. Given Romney's current burn rate, he's unlikely to have substantially more money after Q3 than either Thompson or McCain.
My guess on September 23rd? The evangelicals will splinter their votes a million different ways, putting Rudy Giuliani in a perfect position to capitalize on their weakness.