The buzz surrounding Tuesday's State Assembly races seems to be nearly unanimous among insiders: will Tuesday be a bad night for the AssGOP, or the AssGOP's worst night ever? They've been outspent, they've got no agenda, no accomplishments to run on. They've sent out a field staff that looks more like the Mighty Ducks than an army of political operatives (which I guess makes Kevin Moore our own Emilio Estevez). Except in this remake, the Ducks don't beat the Hawks at the end. They peddle their resumes on Wednesday for whatever jobs are still left.
Just how bad will it be? Let's dive right into the deep end and take a look at this fantastic shipwreck!
Dem seats:
Of the seats held by Democrats, only three seem to be within striking range for the GOP - the three seats held by first-term leggies Kim Hixson, Phil Garthwaite, and Jim Soletski. Realistically, I think the GOP may pick up the Hixson seat and that the other two are long shots. Garthwaite's not the best candidate but he is running in a part of the state that is slowly but surely trending Democratic. Hopes of picking off Soletski are largely tied to McCain keeping his head above water in Northeast Wisconsin. Out of the whole lot, the GOP will be lucky to pick up one.
Open seats:
47th (DEM Pickup) - That the Democrats haven't slammed the door on this in spite of their years of preparation in this district is sad. And Republican candidate Keith Ripp has done a good job of positioning himself as a moderate who will work across the aisle to get things done. But it won't matter. Trish O'Neil FTW here.
50th (GOP Hold) - Ed Brooks will win this one, even though he's run a lackluster campaign. The Democrats in the district shot themselves in the foot by picking the wrong candidate to run back in September.
57th (DEM Pickup) - By all accounts, Republicans have thrown in the towel on Jo Egelhoff and on a seat that they've held for nearly a century. Those up in the Valley tell me Egelhoff has been terrible with the media, abrasive at public events, and basically a nightmare candidate. Penny Bernard Schaber, on the other hand, appears to have used her 2006 campaign as a learning experience. I'll take Bernard Schaber to become the first Democrat to hold the seat since Herman Wieckert in 1917.
91st (DEM Hold) - Dave Hegenbarth is one of the better challengers the Republicans found this cycle, and I wouldn't rule out an election night surprise on this one. But I'll put my money on Chris Danou. Hegenbarth may be a little too country club for this predominantly rural district. This is a part of the state that is trending Democratic in state and national races and I don't see Hegenbarth overcoming that, no matter how much spin the Grocers heap on this one.
92nd (DEM Pickup) - When Mike Huebsch picked Dan Hellman as the GOP's horse in this race, Hellman must have failed to mention his wildly successful e-book that teaches accused criminals how to work the legal system to their advantage. Of course, that Democrats and the media were able to locate it means that Huebsch and RACC were just effing lazy in doing their homework. The GOP deserves to lose this seat for their own idiocy and their crass treatment of Terry Musser in recent years. I'll take Mark Radcliffe in a close race.
GOP seats:
Brett Davis (GOP Hold) - That Barack Obama may break 65% in Davis' district and Democrats have more or less given up on this seat is a testament to how well Davis has positioned himself. As one insider told me, Davis is like "Rick Skindrud with a brain." Regardless of how the evening turns out, Democrats should still kick themselves for failing to pick this one up yet again.
Lee Nerison (GOP Hold) - Nerison wins.
Mike Huebsch (GOP Hold) - The only thing to note here is that the margin of victory will be much less than Mike Huebsch would like.
Jeff Mursau (GOP Hold) - As part of their "Back to the Future" campaign, Democrats in Wisconsin are promising a new vision for the state while running Peter Barca, Jim Holperin, and Stan Gruszynski on the ballot. Gruszynski is the better candidate running in a traditionally Republican seat. I'll take Mursau but wouldn't be surprised if Gruszynski squeaked by.
Terry Moulton (DEM Pickup) - In a seat where the Dems have a 10+ point advantage at the top of the ticket, Kristen Dexter should be able to knock off Moulton. If she can't, the Moulton seat has the potential to become another point of frustration for the Democrats. I'll take Dexter in a close race.
John Murtha (DEM Pickup) - Chris Buckel is a strong candidate running in a seat where the Obama coattails may show up. Murtha was a bad candidate two years ago and he's still a terrible candidate now. If he wasn't so incompetent, this race might not be an issue. But he is. Way to go, Kitty. Thanks for throwing another albatross around the team's neck.
Doc Hines (DEM Pickup) - Word is that Doc never wanted to run anyway and basically refuses to do much of anything in his own defense. The "What's Up, Doc?" ads that GWC is running are apparently making a dent. The Tommy Thompson and Ben Brancel robocalls are another sign of trouble brewing. The Playground picks Fred Clark in a tight race.
Karl Van Roy (DEM Pickup) - If I sat here and picked winners based on personal feelings, I'd pick Van Roy because he's a nice guy, but that'd just make me like the people who picked Mark Green to win by 7 two years ago. Lou Ann Weix is a strong candidate who has worked hard and is hitting on the right issues in that district. The Green Bay Press-Gazette normally leans Republican and loves to pick incumbents. That they endorsed her candidacy says something.
Mary Williams (DEM Pickup) - Seriously, does anyone even care if she loses? Anyone? Bueller?
Jeff Wood (HOLD) - This is a hell of a race to try and predict because single-party Dem ballots don't help Wood at all. Clearly for Democrats, their own best interest is in sending Wood back to Madison to caucus with the Democrats. Republicans in Connecticut figured this out with Joe Lieberman a few years ago, so perhaps Wood's constituents can do the same.
Jerry Petrowski (TOSSUP) - If the Obama tailwind subsides, Petrowski might survive. By all accounts, Nate Myszka has run a formidable race against a guy who isn't all that well liked even among Republicans in the district. This might be one where the Republicans actually win by losing this seat, so they can bounce back with a better candidate in 2010, a year that should be more friendly to them.
Kitty Rhoades (GOP Hold) - Kitty should be nervous about this. She's another who could easily get swept under the bridge in a pro-Obama surge. But she'll probably be fine, which allows her to focus her concern on that train wreck of a candidate she inflicted on the GOP in John Murtha.
Playground Predicts: Democrats +7 (54 Democrats, 44 Republicans, 1 Independent). I went Dems +3 two years ago and they way outperformed my best guess. So we're going higher this time and hoping they don't let us all down. I can't see them picking up any fewer than four seats, and if it's a big night for Obama, they could go as high as nine or ten.
Just how bad will it be? Let's dive right into the deep end and take a look at this fantastic shipwreck!
Dem seats:
Of the seats held by Democrats, only three seem to be within striking range for the GOP - the three seats held by first-term leggies Kim Hixson, Phil Garthwaite, and Jim Soletski. Realistically, I think the GOP may pick up the Hixson seat and that the other two are long shots. Garthwaite's not the best candidate but he is running in a part of the state that is slowly but surely trending Democratic. Hopes of picking off Soletski are largely tied to McCain keeping his head above water in Northeast Wisconsin. Out of the whole lot, the GOP will be lucky to pick up one.
Open seats:
47th (DEM Pickup) - That the Democrats haven't slammed the door on this in spite of their years of preparation in this district is sad. And Republican candidate Keith Ripp has done a good job of positioning himself as a moderate who will work across the aisle to get things done. But it won't matter. Trish O'Neil FTW here.
50th (GOP Hold) - Ed Brooks will win this one, even though he's run a lackluster campaign. The Democrats in the district shot themselves in the foot by picking the wrong candidate to run back in September.
57th (DEM Pickup) - By all accounts, Republicans have thrown in the towel on Jo Egelhoff and on a seat that they've held for nearly a century. Those up in the Valley tell me Egelhoff has been terrible with the media, abrasive at public events, and basically a nightmare candidate. Penny Bernard Schaber, on the other hand, appears to have used her 2006 campaign as a learning experience. I'll take Bernard Schaber to become the first Democrat to hold the seat since Herman Wieckert in 1917.
91st (DEM Hold) - Dave Hegenbarth is one of the better challengers the Republicans found this cycle, and I wouldn't rule out an election night surprise on this one. But I'll put my money on Chris Danou. Hegenbarth may be a little too country club for this predominantly rural district. This is a part of the state that is trending Democratic in state and national races and I don't see Hegenbarth overcoming that, no matter how much spin the Grocers heap on this one.
92nd (DEM Pickup) - When Mike Huebsch picked Dan Hellman as the GOP's horse in this race, Hellman must have failed to mention his wildly successful e-book that teaches accused criminals how to work the legal system to their advantage. Of course, that Democrats and the media were able to locate it means that Huebsch and RACC were just effing lazy in doing their homework. The GOP deserves to lose this seat for their own idiocy and their crass treatment of Terry Musser in recent years. I'll take Mark Radcliffe in a close race.
GOP seats:
Brett Davis (GOP Hold) - That Barack Obama may break 65% in Davis' district and Democrats have more or less given up on this seat is a testament to how well Davis has positioned himself. As one insider told me, Davis is like "Rick Skindrud with a brain." Regardless of how the evening turns out, Democrats should still kick themselves for failing to pick this one up yet again.
Lee Nerison (GOP Hold) - Nerison wins.
Mike Huebsch (GOP Hold) - The only thing to note here is that the margin of victory will be much less than Mike Huebsch would like.
Jeff Mursau (GOP Hold) - As part of their "Back to the Future" campaign, Democrats in Wisconsin are promising a new vision for the state while running Peter Barca, Jim Holperin, and Stan Gruszynski on the ballot. Gruszynski is the better candidate running in a traditionally Republican seat. I'll take Mursau but wouldn't be surprised if Gruszynski squeaked by.
Terry Moulton (DEM Pickup) - In a seat where the Dems have a 10+ point advantage at the top of the ticket, Kristen Dexter should be able to knock off Moulton. If she can't, the Moulton seat has the potential to become another point of frustration for the Democrats. I'll take Dexter in a close race.
John Murtha (DEM Pickup) - Chris Buckel is a strong candidate running in a seat where the Obama coattails may show up. Murtha was a bad candidate two years ago and he's still a terrible candidate now. If he wasn't so incompetent, this race might not be an issue. But he is. Way to go, Kitty. Thanks for throwing another albatross around the team's neck.
Doc Hines (DEM Pickup) - Word is that Doc never wanted to run anyway and basically refuses to do much of anything in his own defense. The "What's Up, Doc?" ads that GWC is running are apparently making a dent. The Tommy Thompson and Ben Brancel robocalls are another sign of trouble brewing. The Playground picks Fred Clark in a tight race.
Karl Van Roy (DEM Pickup) - If I sat here and picked winners based on personal feelings, I'd pick Van Roy because he's a nice guy, but that'd just make me like the people who picked Mark Green to win by 7 two years ago. Lou Ann Weix is a strong candidate who has worked hard and is hitting on the right issues in that district. The Green Bay Press-Gazette normally leans Republican and loves to pick incumbents. That they endorsed her candidacy says something.
Mary Williams (DEM Pickup) - Seriously, does anyone even care if she loses? Anyone? Bueller?
Jeff Wood (HOLD) - This is a hell of a race to try and predict because single-party Dem ballots don't help Wood at all. Clearly for Democrats, their own best interest is in sending Wood back to Madison to caucus with the Democrats. Republicans in Connecticut figured this out with Joe Lieberman a few years ago, so perhaps Wood's constituents can do the same.
Jerry Petrowski (TOSSUP) - If the Obama tailwind subsides, Petrowski might survive. By all accounts, Nate Myszka has run a formidable race against a guy who isn't all that well liked even among Republicans in the district. This might be one where the Republicans actually win by losing this seat, so they can bounce back with a better candidate in 2010, a year that should be more friendly to them.
Kitty Rhoades (GOP Hold) - Kitty should be nervous about this. She's another who could easily get swept under the bridge in a pro-Obama surge. But she'll probably be fine, which allows her to focus her concern on that train wreck of a candidate she inflicted on the GOP in John Murtha.
Playground Predicts: Democrats +7 (54 Democrats, 44 Republicans, 1 Independent). I went Dems +3 two years ago and they way outperformed my best guess. So we're going higher this time and hoping they don't let us all down. I can't see them picking up any fewer than four seats, and if it's a big night for Obama, they could go as high as nine or ten.
11 comments:
Interestingly enough, from watching their videos on Wisconsin Eye and looking at their position statements on their websites, I thought that Wisnefske was quite possibly an even weaker candidate than Waelti in the 80th District. And Waelti, unlike Wisnefske, has won elected office in the biggest population center of the district, which can't hurt.
Regardless of whether or not the ADCC has given up on the Waelti seat or not, there will have to be an awful lot of Obama-Davis voters for Davis to hold on.
I'll take Gruszynski over the caveman in a suit.
Van Roy and Murtha are comfortable wins. Moulton in a squeaker. The rest a toss up.
Tranel will beat Garthwaite because the jean-shirt, bar-stool schtick doesn't play well compared with an energetic and very bright candidate.
Ripp is also a solid win. The family is just too strong in that region. Another example of where the stronger Dem candidate got knocked off in the primary.
Hixson will get the benefit of the campus energy, but is such a baffoon that the rest of district will go heavily for Towns. Too close to call.
Also - Wood is toast, there just are not enough votes after you take away straight party voters. Wood has always been larger than life between his own ears...and that is about it.
The ending balance is 51-48 - but no greater in either direction.
I'll put Van Roy in the winners column. When the ASM GOP was falling apart in 2006, Van Roy actually increased his margins by a pretty healthy amount, overshooting the top of the ticket by double digits.
I would still count Murtha and Moulton as holds but wouldn’t be surprised to see one or both go.
Baring 110% turnout at UWP, Tranel is a lock. He's out worked, out spent, and outsmarted an opponent who didn't leave his Dickeyville barstool to campaign until last Thursday.
I also count Ripp as a win. He’s a fantastic candidate and has run a much better race.
Towns is a tossup but FAIR Wisconsin and the DEM machine have been very good on campuses so I’d be nervous. I’d put Soletski in that category too.
Petrowski will win with numbers comparable to Obama in that district, something like 60%.
I don’t think Wood can hold. Straight ticket voting is too high in that district.
I agree with you that Brooks, Nerison, Davis, and Huebsch are safe.
I also agree that Doc and the old Wieckert seat are pretty much gonners.
Williams doesn’t look good and I wouldn’t put my money on Hegenbarth or Hellman.
I’ll also offer Nate Russell as a toss-up. Despite the bad numbers for the GOP in that district, he has out-worked his opponent 20-1 and may be the big surprise this cycle.
At the end of the day, the Assembly GOP should have 49 or 50 seats.
Despite the trend towards Dem in that area, Trannel will beat Garthwaite simply because he is a far better candidate.
Nathan Russell has run circles around Hillgenburg. Talk about a guy who doesn't want to work for his re-election, Hillgenburg hasn't really shown he wants this job.
The fact that Wieckert's seat is on the verge of flipping is the greatest example of RACC and the AssGOP having no clue what they are doing. This should have been a lock to hold, but they had the worst candidate possible and had no clue how to reign her in. They get what they deserve.
Keith Ripp is the perfect candidate for the GOP to win that district and I think he will do quite well. He has great recognition, is well liked, and is a sensible guy.
You guys really see Doc Hines losing? Interesting. Never really paid attention to that race, but didn't think it was ever in trouble. Was age a factor here? Still, just don't see what has been a solid GOP seat flipping.
Davis wins because he's Davis and know what it takes to get it done in that district.
I agree on Mary Williams, and, no, I don't care.
Wood is interesting. I see him having a long night, but I think he will squeak it out and become hte GOP's worst nightmare. God help us all.
Just can't see either side with more than a 3-4 seat majority. Look for more of the same for the next two years.
I don't think people are doing the math right on Wood's seat. A lot of these guys, both Moulton and Murtha for example, are going to need a ton of Obama voters to split for them in order to win in districts where Obama is going to roll up huge margins. If Obama wins the state by double digits, he will outperform that by a lot in Moulton's district. Once you remove the straight ticket voters, how does this happen?
The only way a guy like Wood loses and guys like Moulton or Murtha win is if the numbers are different from four years ago with the straight tickets.
That's the wave math. The other thing that is different is that Obama has a different view of the ground game than Kerry did. And I am seeing much less activity on the Republican side than I did four years ago. I think those are factors that will push some of those people like Rhoades and Petrowski closer to the edge.
You missed one - Westphal beats Kaufert.
Westphal beats Kaufert? That is laughable.
Jef Hall - take off the patisan blinders...
Just my outside pick from being on the ground here.
I wanted it on the record before the polls close.
Westphal got 48% last time, and this is a more dem year.
Dean learned his lesson after '06 and actually ran a campaign. He'll be just fine.
As far as Kitty going anywhere, well, that's just wishful thinking.
Hixson is gone. No way the voters make that mistake twice. Towns is the lesser of two evils.
Is Hixson a lazy campaigner?....yes.
Is Hixson in any real danger from Cruella De Ville?
....between his charm, a decent job in office, and the University of Wisconsin-Whitewater....no way in hell.
You republicans must be living on the moon.
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