Sunday, July 27, 2008

Yep. Two Americas, all right...

...the one in which you stand by your wife after she's been diagnosed with breast cancer, and the other, in which you're boning your mistress and visiting your love child behind her back. Can someone please tell John Edwards that this isn't France?

A southern demagogue who dallies in class warfare and whores around behind his wife. Don't look now, but John Edwards is fast becoming the white Jesse Jackson.

Thursday, July 24, 2008

If money could vote...

The Wisconsin GOP would already have lost the November election.

Assembly Democratic Campaign Committee: $177K raised, $105K on hand
Republican Assembly Campaign Committee: $35K raised,
$76K on hand

State Senate Democratic Committee: $121K raised,
$217K on hand
Committee to Elect a Republican Senate: $50K raised,
$62K on hand

Those are ugly, ugly mid-year numbers for the GOP. CERS and RACC are so underfunded that they're practically going to be non-entities in competitive races.

Also worth noting is the huge take by the ADCC. Not only do they have 38% more cash on hand than RACC, but they raised five times more money in the reporting period. That likely means their spending advantage will only grow further in the coming months. GOP donors appear to be either demoralized or broke. Meanwhile, Democratic donors are obviously playing for keeps this fall.

Cash advantage to the Democrats. We'll see in a few months how many seats they can turn that into.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Quote of the day

Sheldon Wasserman on his November opponent and LPGA hopeful, Alberta Darling:

“My opponent likes to tell people she is ‘out knocking on doors.’ But the voters know the difference between riding in a car watching staff drop off taxpayer-funded road maps that people did not even ask for and actually knocking on doors and talking to people."

Wow. That's great. It's also true. Good to see Wasserman's not pulling any punches here. It's about time someone call Queen Alberta on how she runs her office. It's a good thing they work hard, because she sure the hell doesn't. Someone should also remind the Queen that she can only hand out fifty of those road maps between June 1 and the election.

Also, maybe Darling should stop putting out releases bragging about her golf game. She's probably spent more time playing golf this year than doing doors - and no, sending your staff to meet your constituents doesn't count.

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Frank Winters celebrates Packers career, new life as Jeff Plale impersonator

Gilbert Arenas confirms: Everyone in the NBA hates Milwaukee, too.

Buried in a July 14th post on the NBA.com Blog Squad, this beautiful nugget from Gilbert Arenas:

Richard Jefferson going to Milwaukee …. HAHAHA! Oh man, now that is funny. When I heard that, I started laughing. Oh man, did I start laughing. You know why? Because every player hates Milwaukee. Nobody wants to live in Milwaukee. I’m sorry, Milwaukee, to come down hard on you, but no one in the NBA wants to play in Milwaukee. From him going from New Jersey, actually from New York (because he lives in New York), from New York to Milwaukee is like going … let’s just say it’s not going to sit well with you. That was a funny one when I heard that one. I know Yi is happy though.

Good to know. Thanks for sharing, Gilbert.

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Poll: Two years later, John Gard still trails Steve Kagen by 4

I get what the Gard campaign is trying to accomplish by floating these numbers, bragging about trailing Rep. Steve Kagen by four points.

Here's the bad news: unfortunately for Gard, he's already got near-universal name ID and just like two years ago, he's still trailing Steve Kagen.

The memo spins the vote-to-reelect question as being pro-Gard, which might be true if Gard were less of a known commodity. Gard's own negatives are going to get in the way of him actually benefiting from a 3-to-1 break in undecideds. Many of those undecideds who can't stand Steve Kagen have been unable to stand John Gard for even longer.

I can just hear the interview now:

Questioner: "If the Congressional election were held today, would you vote for an incumbent, or would prefer to vote for a new person?"

Respondent: "A new person. Steve Kagen is an idiot."

Questioner: "And what if I told you that new person was John Gard?"

Respondent: "Oh s@#!. You're kidding, right?"

Questioner: "No, I'm not sir."

Respondent: "F!@#."


Gard's campaign is the same old tired campaign he ran two years ago. He's not offering anything new. And there's nothing personally about John Gard that will motivate anyone to vote for him on that alone. Gard is a nice guy but rather uninspiring. He grew up in Peshtigo and pretty much spent his whole adult life collecting paychecks from the government. Hardly the swashbuckling life of adventure that captures the imagination of voters. His unfavorables come not from personal dislike, but rather a distaste for the agenda the Assembly Republicans pursued while he was Speaker.

So Gard is just standing there and hoping that enough people have soured on Steve Kagen that they'll give him a second look. Either that, or he's praying for a John McCain tailwind to exist in large enough quantity so as to push him over the top. But in a year where sentiment toward Republicans is so unkind, will that be enough?

Gard's track record in the district is even longer than Kagen's, which means his favorable/unfavorable ratings will likely be even harder to move. Kagen's had a lackluster first term and has been privately acknowledged by another Democrat in the state delegation as being a train wreck. Kagen's brought home some pork, and that's about where his record ends.

Gard's only hope is that Wisconsin remains competitive in the presidential campaign. Gard will almost certainly receive fewer votes in the district than McCain. I can picture a McCain/Kagen ballot far more easily than an Obama/Gard ballot. If McCain can manage a 6-8 point win in the 8th CD, Gard's strategy might pan out.

But for that to happen, Wisconsin needs to stay in the toss-up column in the presidential race. Right now, Obama is showing an 11-point lead in Wisconsin, according to the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls. Furthermore, Wisconsin hasn't gone Republican once in the last five presidential elections. And Obama will undoubtedly outspend McCain nearly everywhere, including Wisconsin.

If McCain and his smaller bankroll are still down double-digits in mid-late September, it's hard to imagine him pouring resources into Wisconsin when he will likely be more competitive in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Colorado, and likely fighting to keep Virginia and Missouri from turning blue. And without a lot of help from McCain, Gard's got an uphill battle on his hands once again.

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

More on Jeff Wood's fantastic kick to the AssGOP's balls

I've heard from multiple individuals today that the Democrats likely knew well in advance of Jeff Wood's decision to ditch on the AssGOP caucus and that they may have even assisted in collecting signatures for Wood's nomination papers. Mark Pocan's post on the Assembly Democrats' blog certainly creates an impression that they're not surprised by what occurred.

This may well explain why the Democrats never bothered to recruit a candidate in a district that Jim Doyle carried in 2006. If the Democrats don't need the seat to reclaim the majority (and the near-universal opinion in the building is that they likely don't), then having Wood around to antagonize the AssGOP from the libertarian perspective is almost better than picking up another Democratic backbencher. Wood's mere presence will exacerbate the divide with the AssGOP caucus between the social conservatives, the pork-lovers, and those who wish the GOP would stop bothering with all the nutjob religious zealots and smoke-and-mirrors budgeting and just focus on making government a better steward of taxpayer resources (and he's not alone on that front).


Just how bad are things in the Assembly Republican Caucus?

Even the ones running for re-election don't want to be identified with their leadership anymore.

After 5 1/2 years of wrestling with his own political party in addition to the opposition party, Republican state Rep. Jeff Wood of Chippewa Falls announced Tuesday he will run as an independent in the fall election.

The three-term representative of the 67th Assembly District said the difficult decision was a matter of conscience. He no longer could justify membership in a party he doesn't believe in anymore.

"It all comes down to fiscal responsibility and what our party is doing with this country at the national level mostly," Wood said. "This used to be a fiscally conservative party. It's not anymore."

Not only did Jeff Wood drop this bomb on the day nomination papers are due - effectively leaving the GOP without a candidate in the 67th - he also took a huge steaming dump on the Assembly GOP candidate rollout at the Concourse tonight. So the AssGOP will likely get Jeff Wood or a Democrat in the fall. Neither one is voting for Mike Huebsch for leader.

For all intents and purposes, I guess we can make that a one-seat majority as of right now, 51-47. Lose two seats and they're gone.

I wonder how many restaurant owners and failed small businessmen Mark Jefferson has called in the 67th today? Surely one of them can get 200 valid signatures by 1:30 p.m. today, get in their car, and drive three hours to Madison to turn in their papers before the 5 p.m. filing deadline tonight.

Kudos to Jeff Wood. When your leadership screws with you, this is how you screw them back. Well done, sir.


 
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