I get what the Gard campaign is trying to accomplish by floating
these numbers, bragging about trailing Rep. Steve Kagen by four points.
Here's the bad news: unfortunately for Gard, he's already got near-universal name ID and just like two years ago, he's still trailing Steve Kagen.
The memo spins the vote-to-reelect question as being pro-Gard, which might be true if Gard were less of a known commodity. Gard's own negatives are going to get in the way of him actually benefiting from a 3-to-1 break in undecideds. Many of those undecideds who can't stand Steve Kagen have been unable to stand John Gard for even longer.
I can just hear the interview now:
Questioner: "If the Congressional election were held today, would you vote for an incumbent, or would prefer to vote for a new person?"
Respondent: "A new person. Steve Kagen is an idiot."
Questioner: "And what if I told you that new person was John Gard?"
Respondent: "Oh s@#!. You're kidding, right?"
Questioner: "No, I'm not sir."
Respondent: "F!@#."
Gard's campaign is the same old tired campaign he ran two years ago. He's not offering anything new. And there's nothing personally about John Gard that will motivate anyone to vote for him on that alone. Gard is a nice guy but rather uninspiring. He grew up in Peshtigo and pretty much spent his whole adult life collecting paychecks from the government. Hardly the swashbuckling life of adventure that captures the imagination of voters. His unfavorables come not from personal dislike, but rather a distaste for the agenda the Assembly Republicans pursued while he was Speaker.
So Gard is just standing there and hoping that enough people have soured on Steve Kagen that they'll give him a second look. Either that, or he's praying for a John McCain tailwind to exist in large enough quantity so as to push him over the top. But in a year where sentiment toward Republicans is so unkind, will that be enough?
Gard's track record in the district is even longer than Kagen's, which means his favorable/unfavorable ratings will likely be even harder to move. Kagen's had a lackluster first term and has been privately acknowledged by another Democrat in the state delegation as being a train wreck. Kagen's brought home some pork, and that's about where his record ends.
Gard's only hope is that Wisconsin remains competitive in the presidential campaign. Gard will almost certainly receive fewer votes in the district than McCain. I can picture a McCain/Kagen ballot far more easily than an Obama/Gard ballot. If McCain can manage a 6-8 point win in the 8th CD, Gard's strategy might pan out.
But for that to happen, Wisconsin needs to stay in the toss-up column in the presidential race. Right now, Obama is showing an
11-point lead in Wisconsin, according to the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls. Furthermore, Wisconsin hasn't gone Republican once in the last five presidential elections. And Obama will undoubtedly outspend McCain nearly everywhere, including Wisconsin.
If McCain and his smaller bankroll are still down double-digits in mid-late September, it's hard to imagine him pouring resources into Wisconsin when he will likely be more competitive in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Colorado, and likely fighting to keep Virginia and Missouri from turning blue. And without a lot of help from McCain, Gard's got an uphill battle on his hands once again.