Yeah, what he said.

Those of you outside the building may not be aware that lots of shuffling occurs in the fallout after an election. And while it may seem of little consequence to the real world, one of the biggest little matters in the weeks prior to inauguration is the filling of vacant offices.

Tradition dictates that members may, in order of seniority, move into offices vacated by outgoing members of their caucus. This is why, when you visit the Capitol, more senior members tend to have larger offices with more windows and fewer neighbors.

There is also another rule that is traditionally followed: no member is allowed to displace another member. In other words, members are only allowed to choose from vacant offices. They may not use their leadership position or seniority to displace a fellow caucus member.

Well, guess who has decided that he doesn't like tradition? That's right, it's lame duck Speaker and majority-killer Mike Huebsch. It has been widely reported that Huebsch, in the waning days of his naked-Emperor Speakership, is planning to throw Joan Ballweg out of her office so that he may have it for himself.

For those wondering which office we're talking about, it's the end office on first floor west, the one with the big windows and balcony that overlooks State Street. It's a great office (it even has a bathroom), but the only drawback is that the office is shared side-by-side with another member.

But no worries, Huebsch has a plan for that too. He's trying to find a way to maneuver Kitty Rhoades into the other half. This, of course, is perfect for the two of them. Not only are they the only two people who can probably stand each other, but it also allows Huebsch to reform his failed empire under one roof. Kevin Moore, Jodi Jensen, hell, maybe Huebsch and Rhoades can split Brian Dake while they're at it. What better way to turn the ship around than by allowing the people who pissed the majority away to keep their overpaid staffers together in one place?

This, once again, highlights the difference between Scott Jensen and those who have followed him. We've shifted from a leader who used his power to advance an agenda to leaders who have used their power to simply help themselves personally.

Mike Huebsch, along with his toadies like Kevin Moore, have overseen the speedy destruction of 15 years of work by those who came before them. And now, instead of simply following tradition, Huebsch attempts to use his lame duck Speakership to reward himself and his overpaid staff by throwing another member of his caucus out on the street. Instead of accepting his fate, Huebsch abuses his power and spits in the face of a colleague.

Says a lot about Mike Huebsch, doesn't it? For the record, when Scott Jensen stepped down as speaker for the 2003 session, he moved into the office being vacated by Joe Leibham. Hardly a piece of prime real estate.

This could well be the first real test of Jeff Fitzgerald's leadership - is Little Brother willing to intervene on behalf of a rank-and-file member to keep the outgoing Speaker from walking all over her? It would get him off to a great start with his members and AssGOP staff if he was willing to stand up to Huebsch. After all, Fitz has the authority to undo any decision made by Huebsch come inauguration day. All he needs to do is direct Huebsch to the list of vacant offices and indicate that if Huebsch fails to choose from the list, he will be forcibly relocated in January. He can even request that Speaker Mike Sheridan have the Chief Clerk bill the move to Huebsch's office account.

Little Brother would be well-served to remember that there is far more for him to gain by siding with Joan Ballweg than by standing around with his hands in his pockets and pretending like he can't do anything.

Democrats elect Speaker, prepare for return to minority?

Interesting.

According to (Rep. Fred) Kessler, the next Assembly leader needs to realize that pushing progressive values and issues will be important, as will understanding the inevitable switch in majority leadership in the next election.

“The other side is going to get control again in the next election,” Kessler said. “It’s a pattern that occurs all the time.”

After watching the complete mess that was the AssDems' organizing caucus, I can see why someone like Fred Kessler might think their stay in the majority will be short-lived. Wisconsinites, in two consecutive cycles, have voted against Republicans (and rightfully so) without ever considering what in the hell they were actually voting for. With the Democrats behind the wheel and the Republicans locked up in the trunk, there's only one party to blame now when the car ends up in the ditch.

Maybe the Democrats could start their majority rule by doing taxpayers a favor and holding off on their myriad of planned office moves for two years. You know, until they can prove it's not a temporary relocation.

Sleeping in the bed you made

The Legislative Black Caucus (featuring Pedro Colón) confers this afternoon after Colón was defeated in his bid for Majority Leader by Tom Nelson.

Playground flashback - June 29, 2006:

By the way, do you ever wonder if the Assembly GOP regrets writing Tom Nelson off as a carpetbagging Wellstone clone two years ago? Tom Nelson was their biggest nightmare and they were all too dumb to realize it until it was too late. Hmmm... a bachelor's degree from a small, private liberal arts college in the Midwest followed by a graduate degree in public policy from an Ivy League institution. Does that sound like anyone else we know?

Today, Tom Nelson, the guy RACC actually thought couldn't get past Becky Weber, was elected Majority Leader as part of a geographically diverse set of new Democratic leaders. The Legislative Black Caucus (featuring Pedro Colón) got shut out, but I'm sure it'll demand payback in the form of JFC seats. Get set to flush more money down the rathole that is Milwaukee.

In any case, congrats and good luck to incoming Speaker Mike Sheridan and the rest of his team. Starting $5 billion in the hole, they might need the luck more than anything else.

The candidacy letter Scott Newcomer should have written.

Dear Assembly Republican Colleagues:

Congratulations on your election to the State Assembly! I am sure you know from looking at your finance reports that I have done absolutely nothing to help any of you get elected. I didn't donate money or volunteer my time and you know what? Neither did my staff. It's also pretty certain that we didn't knock on doors for you, or drop lit, or make phone calls. If we did, I swear it was an accident. We were too busy coasting unopposed in our 70% district to notice you. You should try it sometime!

But now, having done absolutely nothing to help you or folks in the five seats we lost, and having no legislative accomplishments in just under two terms, I would like to be your leader. Because there's no "I" in team, but there sure is a "ME." Just like in "NewcoMEr." Haha!

If you elect me, I promise you that my office door will be closed, just like it is most of the time. What can I say? I believe in smaller government, and my staff likes four-day weekends! Just talk to your staff or the folks in Sergeant's office and they'll tell you that the Newcomer office is walking the walk and talking the talk!

But no matter. As you all know, lazy understaffed offices are all the rage. Just walk by Rep. Vukmir's, or Rep. Kramer's, or Rep. Pridemore's office sometime. You'll probably find the lights off and doors locked too, whether it's Friday at 3 p.m. or Tuesday morning at 10:15. When we tell people that Wisconsinites need less government in their lives, we Southeast Wisconsin conservatives lead by example!

This weekend, I will be traveling the state, meeting with members and smearing my opponent in this race, Jeff Fitzgerald. I will be telling you that he's a weasel who can't be trusted and that since he's had a failed marriage, he's probably not qualified to be your leader. By my logic, Ronald Reagan was also unqualified to lead us, but no matter - such evidence is not helpful to me at the moment.

Normally I would honor the 11th Commandment and not speak ill of a fellow Republican, but hey, this is The Scott Newcomer Show, featuring me, Scott Newcomer! Why else would someone with less than four years in the building and zero accomplishments to his name (other than installing a sweet aquarium in his office) run for leader?

Oh, by the way, please don't ask me about any potential problems in my own marriage or personal life. I'm telling you guys, if it isn't on CCAP yet, it didn't actually happen.

Thanks for your consideration as we approach Monday's vote. I'd also like to take this opportunity to encourage you to vote for Rep. Vukmir for assistant leader as well, especially since I can't. She's divorced, and therefore totally unqualified in my eyes. But I owe a lot to her. After all, I'm basically her sock puppet, if you hadn't noticed. You think I would've run without her permission? Ha! Funny!

Vote NewcoMEr, bitches! First ten who commit to me can come to my office and feed my sweet fish - if my staff are actually around to let you in.

I rule,
Scott Newcomer

Half right.

As we follow the election post mortem here on the Playground, we need to make note of a disturbing trend: the way in which the media tries to lump all flavors of conservatism together, mix them up, and serve them as if they are the same thing.

Take, for instance, this self-aggrandizing caress of the ego by Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council:

"Moderates never beat conservatives. We've seen that in past elections," he said.

Rejecting suggestions that the conservative movement was viewed as being out of touch with the electorate, Perkins says the Republican Party needs to go back to basics.

"It's a return to fundamental conservative principles that Ronald Reagan showed work and that people can be attracted to," Perkins said.

Pointing to measures in California, Florida and Arizona barring same-sex marriage that passed Tuesday, Perkins said President-elect Barack Obama's election did not mean the country had embraced liberal social views.

"There was clearly no mandate to shift the country to the left on social issues," Perkins said. "What Tuesday was, was a fact that people wanted change, and it's a rejection of a moderate view."

Perkins is half-right, but like so many social conservatives, then proceeds to muddle everything up.

Tuesday's results weren't any kind of a repudiation of fiscal conservatism. They couldn't be because fiscal conservatism and responsibility were nowhere to be found on the ballot. Those who would call themselves conservatives, folks like George W. Bush, Dennis Hastert, and Tom DeLay, were never fiscally conservative. Each saw the power of government as something to be sold to friendly interest groups in exchange for campaign cash and short-term power. If anything, they've given fiscal conservatives a bad name, and that's a shame.

Fiscal conservatism, when married to a sense of pragmatism and responsibility, will be a winning message in nearly any election contested anywhere in the U.S. In general, voters don't want government to spend any more money than it absolutely has to. When government does spend money, voters want to know that it's being done responsibly. Republicans used to be the standard bearers on this and in recent years, that's all gone awry.

To that end, the Grover Norquists of the world are valuable to the Republican Party. I'm not sure that Grover's message of starving government has universal appeal, but it is valuable in keeping politicians honest. It's an important part of a winning GOP coalition.

The problem is with social conservatives, the folks whom Bush and DeLay and others removed from the kiddie table and decided should sit with the grown-ups. Now, for years, this supposed Republican coalition worked well, in no small part because social conservatives were told to be seen and not heard. Theirs is a thorny message that is not conducive to partisan success in the political arena. Folks like Ronald Reagan understood this, which is why he would talk broadly about pro-life matters but never made any attempt to legislate anything.

It's no secret that much of the support for gay marriage amendments and whatnot comes from socially and culturally conservative groups that are solidly Democratic - namely, African-American and Hispanic voters. The middle part of the political spectrum is generally neutral to negative when it comes to responding to these concerns. That is, pushing the Family Research Council agenda isn't scoring the GOP any points. Minority voters aren't going GOP because of these issues, and it's costing the GOP among fiscally conservative but socially moderate-to-liberal voters for whom association with the FRC types is not palatable.

At the same time we see gay marriage bans winning, we see abortion-related ballot measures failing in diverse settings. A ban on abortion in South Dakota lost by ten points. A Colorado initiative to grant personhood to fetuses lost by 46 points. Voters in Washington State supported doctor-assisted suicide. The same voters who voted to ban gay marriage in California also voted against a proposition on limiting abortion.

Perkins is right. There's no mandate to the left on social issues. But clearly, there is also no mandate to the right.

If the GOP is smart, they will commit to matters of fiscal responsibility with new enthusiasm. There's some trust that needs to be rebuilt. These fiscal positions will play well not only in red states and among rural voters, but also among blue-collar workers, white suburbanites, and college educated voters. In short, they play well where the voters are.

To realize the full effect of that, the GOP needs to put the social conservatives on the backburner. All conservatives are not created equal, and not all conservatives contribute equally to the long-term success of the party.

Elly May Clampett indeed.

Good to see Sarah Palin loves pork and swag just as much as the next crooked redneck politician from Alaska. From Newsweek:

One senior aide said that Nicolle Wallace had told Palin to buy three suits for the convention and hire a stylist. But instead, the vice presidential nominee began buying for herself and her family—clothes and accessories from top stores such as Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus...

...Palin also used low-level staffers to buy some of the clothes on their credit cards. The McCain campaign found out last week when the aides sought reimbursement. One aide estimated that she spent "tens of thousands" more than the reported $150,000, and that $20,000 to $40,000 went to buy clothes for her husband. Some articles of clothing have apparently been lost. An angry aide characterized the shopping spree as "Wasilla hillbillies looting Neiman Marcus from coast to coast," and said the truth will eventually come out when the Republican Party audits its books.

Mark Gundrum's next great idea

You just know this amendment from the wacko Bible-thumpers in Arkansas is going to catch on with their like-minded spirits in Wisconsin:

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (BP)--Voters in Arkansas approved a measure preventing adoptive or foster care children from being placed in homes with couples who live together out of wedlock, whether those adults are heterosexual or homosexual. Nearly 57 percent of voters supported the ban.

The Arkansas Family Council Action Committee gathered about 90,000 signatures to put Proposed Initiative Act No. 1 on the ballot, hoping to replicate their successful effort at passing a marriage amendment in the state four years ago...

"This agenda uses children to advance the goals of special interest groups. Homosexuals in California, Connecticut, Washington, D.C., Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Vermont have successfully used adoptive or foster care children to advance their agenda," Cox said on the group's website. "Activists in these states have already secured passage of laws that support adoption or foster care by homosexuals."

Since Arkansas had no law on the books to prevent a similar strategy, Cox said the measure was necessary to prevent the state's children from being used to promote a social or political agenda.

Sound familiar? It even uses the same twisted logic that they put forward in the gay marriage debate: we must stop the homo-loving judges from letting the scary gays do anything that might even remotely resemble what married couples do.

What's next? "Gays only" water fountains? "No shirt, no shoes, no gays" signs at stores? Clearly, with the religious wackos, there will be no end to their madness. How sad it is that at a time when America elects its first African-American president, extremist social conservatives just keep looking for new ways to treat another minority group like second-class citizens.

Want to know why moderate voters can't stand being associated with the GOP right now? Start right here.

AssGOP fast tracks minority leadership elections

According to lazy candidate and almost-loser Rep. Mark Honadel, the AssGOP will be holding its first minority leadership election in 16 years on Monday afternoon.

Members:

The Assembly Republicans will be caucusing on Monday, November 10th at 1:00 pm in GAR to elect the 2009-10 caucus leadership team. If for any reason you are unable to attend this caucus please contact my office as soon as possible.

Here's the early buzz on early candidates for leadership offices:

Mark Honadel - Last night's almost-loser is in the ring, likely running an SMS (Save My Staff) campaign.

Jeff Fitzgerald - Fitz has been distancing himself from Huebsch for months, and will likely work to encourage caucus members to not throw the baby out with the dirty, peed-in bathwater. We here at the Playground think Little Fitz could be the best option provided you surrounded him with the right people, people like Vos and Gottlieb and Zipperer and not guys like Gundrum.

Mark Gundrum - Gundrum is a smart guy but he can't stay away from the wingnut-flavored Kool-Aid. And his pet gay marriage amendment is a large reason why the AssGOP is holding minority leadership elections in the first place.

Scott Gunderson - Because Gunderson always runs for something. He also always pulls out when he realizes he's not even close to getting the votes. Will this time be different?

Mike Huebsch has just withdrawn his name from consideration:

Members and Staff,

I am honored to represent my constituents in the state Assembly and thank them for this opportunity. I also thank my Assembly colleagues for the honor they have given me to serve this body, first as Majority Leader and then as Speaker.

I have worked to bring people together in the best interest of Wisconsin. We have come through some challenging times and we know there are still more challenges on the horizon. As the Assembly Republican caucus begins the next session in the minority, I believe we will be best served by a new leader. Therefore, I will not seek a leadership post in the coming session...

Thumbs Up, Thumbs Down: The morning after.

State Senate:


Thumbs Up:

A tip of the cap to CERS for effectively weathering a 13 point storm at the top of the ticket and coming back even. Decker's boy Breske has been replaced by Doyle toadie Jim Holperin. CERS held its incumbents and retained the Roessler seat (just barely, but hey, a win's a win). It had the benefit of mainstream, likeable candidates in its contested races. There are a whole slew of soft Dem seats coming up in 2010 (Vinehout, Sullivan, Kreitlow), a year which will probably be much better for Republicans than either 2006 or 2008. Who knows what Doyle will do, but for now, the Senate GOP is probably the GOP's best hope to regain control in two years.

Thumbs Down:

Russ Decker, easy. Obama dominates in western Wisconsin and he can't bring home either Kapanke or Harsdorf. Jessica King comes up just short, though maybe she's a winner if she can keep her car out of the crosswalk. Jim Holperin knows who his daddy is, and it sure ain't Russ. And Sheldon Wasserman's loss is a missed opportunity in the Milwaukee suburbs. Somehow, Decker turns Obama +13 into Senate Dems plus zilch.

State Assembly:


Thumbs Up:

Karl Van Roy: Perhaps the AssGOP and RACC should sit down and ask Karl what his magic secret is. Van Roy wins comfortably, and the numbers show it was the result of a large stack of Obama/Kagen/Van Roy ballots. Maybe nice guys can win once in awhile.

Jeff Wood: Wood manages to overcome the burden of straight party ballots to win reelection as an independent. But practically speaking, it's unlikely that the Dems will not have a candidate on the ballot in that seat in two years, whether it's Wood or someone else.

WEAC: Their aggressive spending against Frank Lasee caught RACC and Lasee sleeping at the wheel and ousted one of their biggest problem spots.

GWC: "What's Up, Doc?" helps put the nail in the coffin for Doc Hines.

Thumbs Down:

Mike Huebsch: In just two cycles, the AssGOP has lost 12 (maybe 13) seats and has undone nearly 15 years of work by Team Jensen. Huebsch has been an inconsistent messenger and has run a leadership office best described as a vortex of mismanagement. And his hand-picked golden boy, Dan Hellman, blew up in his face with disclosures that can only prove that he never bothered to do his homework on western Wisconsin's most prolific author. If there's any degree of common sense in the AssGOP caucus, Huebsch will be enjoying the view from the back of the room come January.

Frank Lasee: Lasee, a multi-term incumbent and one of the purest and most ardent fiscal conservatives in the body, is the only real November surprise for the AssGOP. You'd think that maybe he would have noticed the dead canary in the mine from four years ago, Becky Weber, and realized that maybe his strident, extremist message wouldn't be the best approach in the long run. But many politicians lack self-awareness and Lasee is apparently among them. Lasee badly underperformed in his own neck of the woods and got put down by Manitowoc County.

RACC: Once again, RACC epitomizes cluelessness. They'll blame everyone but themselves, which is the biggest problem they have and why the AssGOP leadership needs to be cleaned from top to bottom. They failed to get more money to candidates who could've used it (Lasee, Moulton) while wasting it on candidates like Jo Egelhoff and Dan Hellman, where numbers showed a few weeks ago that their candidates were likely a lost cause. Mind you, in many instances like with Honadel, Bies, and Williams, they are saddled with either lazy/clueless candidates, staff, or both. Now is the time for RACC to set about sorting the wheat from the chaff. RACC just can't afford to keep wasting time, energy, and finite resources on lazy incumbents and poor challengers.

ADCC: Even with a five seat win, the ADCC underperformed badly in a few areas. Given the Obama margins in his district, there's no way that Brett Davis should be winning by his biggest margin ever. The narrow margin in the Hahn seat is a blown opportunity. Hixson's sliver-thin victory shouldn't inspire confidence. Funny that Team Pocan can win everywhere but suburban and exurban Madison. The vast number of Obama/Kagen/Van Roy ballots in the 90th should concern them. Mary Williams slipped through their fingers. They dropped the ball again with John Murtha. And given a $3+ billion deficit and a narrow majority, the AssDems best watch themselves carefully. Responsibility can be a real bitch, and if they go off the deep end, they'll learn that the hard way in two years.

Saving the best for last.

I usually prefer to read speeches rather than watch them. And there's a certain eloquence that is often found only in defeat. I may still be saddled with two John Murthas and that crazy lunatic Michele Bachmann, but as least John McCain reminded me of why it was that I believed in him in the first place.

Sen. Obama and I have had and argued our differences, and he has prevailed. No doubt many of those differences remain.

These are difficult times for our country. And I pledge to him tonight to do all in my power to help him lead us through the many challenges we face.

I urge all Americans who supported me to join me in not just congratulating him, but offering our next president our good will and earnest effort to find ways to come together to find the necessary compromises to bridge our differences and help restore our prosperity, defend our security in a dangerous world, and leave our children and grandchildren a stronger, better country than we inherited.

Whatever our differences, we are fellow Americans. And please believe me when I say no association has ever meant more to me than that...

...I wish Godspeed to the man who was my former opponent and will be my president. And I call on all Americans, as I have often in this campaign, to not despair of our present difficulties, but to believe, always, in the promise and greatness of America, because nothing is inevitable here.

Good riddance to Lasee's Notes.

Time to uncork the second bottle of champagne here at Playground Central! So long to the King of TABOR!

GOP Rep. Frank Lasee has conceded in the 2nd AD to Dem Ted Zigmunt, according to Dem Rep. Mark Pocan, who is leading the Democratic Assembly effort.

Supervisor to Gard: Who exactly is this "we" you're talking about?

"What we believe in is real. What we believe in needs to be fought for," said Gard, a Republican from Suamico. "I believe in what we fight for ... We will live to fight another day, in a variety of ways."

Back to the PlayStation, big guy. Maybe do the GOP a favor and let them pick someone who can actually beat Steve Kagen next time.

WOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!

There is much to rejoice in thus far, and the numbers continue to look promising for another widespread massacre of the GOP. If you're looking for me, I'm over on Owen's blog, watching people cry in their Kool-Aid on Leah Vukmir's live blog.

Here's hoping for still more blood in the streets as the hours pass on.

Five Playground wishes for tonight

While I think I'll find many reasons to be excited tonight, here's what I'm hoping Santa drops off early.

1. Michele Bachmann, please report to the unemployment line. Bachmann is batshit crazy and even if there are millions of nutty Freepers and Bible thumpers who thinks she's the greatest thing ever, I frankly don't care if Freepers and Bible thumpers are underrepresented in Congress. Someone get her the hell away from the levers of power now.

2. Kitty Rhoades gets swept under in a massive pro-Obama tide. With the departure of Debi Towns, Rhoades became the least liked Republican woman wandering the halls of the Capitol. You know how you're always putting your collegues down under your breath in caucus, Kitty? Yeah, we can all hear what you're saying. You're about as subtle as that time that Mary Lazich reportedly screamed out in caucus that she wanted people to stop, um, er, having intercourse with her face. And I'm not kidding you when I tell you that scores of people will be quietly smiling to themselves if you lose, Kitty. Staffers. GOP leggies. The lobbyists who are only nice to you because you are on JFC. The Capitol cleaning staff who probably have to scrape the tar off restored East Wing furniture and walls when you cavalierly smoke in your office without any regard for the law. Pretty much everyone.

3. Everyone named John Murtha loses. Wisconsin's John Murtha is a train wreck, as is Pennsylvania's. Here's hoping both have constituencies who are finally going to demand better representation.

4. That Florida's CD-16 finally gets a representative who isn't morally bankrupt. Between Mark Foley and Tim Mahoney, I'm pretty close to believing that district shouldn't get representation in Congress for a few terms, just to teach the idiot voters there a lesson.

5. That in a likely defeat, John McCain can find the John McCain that most of us remember. McCain's campaign has been pretty indefensible through much of the general election, with its ridiculous attempts to pander to the nuts costing him a lot of votes in the middle he would have otherwise gotten. Here's hoping that, win or lose, the guy that shows up at the podium tonight is the one that America liked and so many of us believed in for all those years.

Playground Picks: Electoral College

What can I say? I have a lot of faith in modern polling.

Playground Picks: State Assembly

The buzz surrounding Tuesday's State Assembly races seems to be nearly unanimous among insiders: will Tuesday be a bad night for the AssGOP, or the AssGOP's worst night ever? They've been outspent, they've got no agenda, no accomplishments to run on. They've sent out a field staff that looks more like the Mighty Ducks than an army of political operatives (which I guess makes Kevin Moore our own Emilio Estevez). Except in this remake, the Ducks don't beat the Hawks at the end. They peddle their resumes on Wednesday for whatever jobs are still left.

Just how bad will it be? Let's dive right into the deep end and take a look at this fantastic shipwreck!


Dem seats:

Of the seats held by Democrats, only three seem to be within striking range for the GOP - the three seats held by first-term leggies Kim Hixson, Phil Garthwaite, and Jim Soletski. Realistically, I think the GOP may pick up the Hixson seat and that the other two are long shots. Garthwaite's not the best candidate but he is running in a part of the state that is slowly but surely trending Democratic. Hopes of picking off Soletski are largely tied to McCain keeping his head above water in Northeast Wisconsin. Out of the whole lot, the GOP will be lucky to pick up one.

Open seats:

47th (DEM Pickup) - That the Democrats haven't slammed the door on this in spite of their years of preparation in this district is sad. And Republican candidate Keith Ripp has done a good job of positioning himself as a moderate who will work across the aisle to get things done. But it won't matter. Trish O'Neil FTW here.

50th (GOP Hold) - Ed Brooks will win this one, even though he's run a lackluster campaign. The Democrats in the district shot themselves in the foot by picking the wrong candidate to run back in September.

57th (DEM Pickup) - By all accounts, Republicans have thrown in the towel on Jo Egelhoff and on a seat that they've held for nearly a century. Those up in the Valley tell me Egelhoff has been terrible with the media, abrasive at public events, and basically a nightmare candidate. Penny Bernard Schaber, on the other hand, appears to have used her 2006 campaign as a learning experience. I'll take Bernard Schaber to become the first Democrat to hold the seat since Herman Wieckert in 1917.

91st (DEM Hold) - Dave Hegenbarth is one of the better challengers the Republicans found this cycle, and I wouldn't rule out an election night surprise on this one. But I'll put my money on Chris Danou. Hegenbarth may be a little too country club for this predominantly rural district. This is a part of the state that is trending Democratic in state and national races and I don't see Hegenbarth overcoming that, no matter how much spin the Grocers heap on this one.

92nd (DEM Pickup) - When Mike Huebsch picked Dan Hellman as the GOP's horse in this race, Hellman must have failed to mention his wildly successful e-book that teaches accused criminals how to work the legal system to their advantage. Of course, that Democrats and the media were able to locate it means that Huebsch and RACC were just effing lazy in doing their homework. The GOP deserves to lose this seat for their own idiocy and their crass treatment of Terry Musser in recent years. I'll take Mark Radcliffe in a close race.


GOP seats:

Brett Davis (GOP Hold) - That Barack Obama may break 65% in Davis' district and Democrats have more or less given up on this seat is a testament to how well Davis has positioned himself. As one insider told me, Davis is like "Rick Skindrud with a brain." Regardless of how the evening turns out, Democrats should still kick themselves for failing to pick this one up yet again.

Lee Nerison (GOP Hold) - Nerison wins.

Mike Huebsch (GOP Hold) - The only thing to note here is that the margin of victory will be much less than Mike Huebsch would like.

Jeff Mursau (GOP Hold) - As part of their "Back to the Future" campaign, Democrats in Wisconsin are promising a new vision for the state while running Peter Barca, Jim Holperin, and Stan Gruszynski on the ballot. Gruszynski is the better candidate running in a traditionally Republican seat. I'll take Mursau but wouldn't be surprised if Gruszynski squeaked by.

Terry Moulton (DEM Pickup) - In a seat where the Dems have a 10+ point advantage at the top of the ticket, Kristen Dexter should be able to knock off Moulton. If she can't, the Moulton seat has the potential to become another point of frustration for the Democrats. I'll take Dexter in a close race.

John Murtha (DEM Pickup) - Chris Buckel is a strong candidate running in a seat where the Obama coattails may show up. Murtha was a bad candidate two years ago and he's still a terrible candidate now. If he wasn't so incompetent, this race might not be an issue. But he is. Way to go, Kitty. Thanks for throwing another albatross around the team's neck.

Doc Hines (DEM Pickup) - Word is that Doc never wanted to run anyway and basically refuses to do much of anything in his own defense. The "What's Up, Doc?" ads that GWC is running are apparently making a dent. The Tommy Thompson and Ben Brancel robocalls are another sign of trouble brewing. The Playground picks Fred Clark in a tight race.

Karl Van Roy (DEM Pickup) - If I sat here and picked winners based on personal feelings, I'd pick Van Roy because he's a nice guy, but that'd just make me like the people who picked Mark Green to win by 7 two years ago. Lou Ann Weix is a strong candidate who has worked hard and is hitting on the right issues in that district. The Green Bay Press-Gazette normally leans Republican and loves to pick incumbents. That they endorsed her candidacy says something.

Mary Williams (DEM Pickup) - Seriously, does anyone even care if she loses? Anyone? Bueller?

Jeff Wood (HOLD) - This is a hell of a race to try and predict because single-party Dem ballots don't help Wood at all. Clearly for Democrats, their own best interest is in sending Wood back to Madison to caucus with the Democrats. Republicans in Connecticut figured this out with Joe Lieberman a few years ago, so perhaps Wood's constituents can do the same.

Jerry Petrowski (TOSSUP) - If the Obama tailwind subsides, Petrowski might survive. By all accounts, Nate Myszka has run a formidable race against a guy who isn't all that well liked even among Republicans in the district. This might be one where the Republicans actually win by losing this seat, so they can bounce back with a better candidate in 2010, a year that should be more friendly to them.

Kitty Rhoades (GOP Hold) - Kitty should be nervous about this. She's another who could easily get swept under the bridge in a pro-Obama surge. But she'll probably be fine, which allows her to focus her concern on that train wreck of a candidate she inflicted on the GOP in John Murtha.


Playground Predicts: Democrats +7 (54 Democrats, 44 Republicans, 1 Independent). I went Dems +3 two years ago and they way outperformed my best guess. So we're going higher this time and hoping they don't let us all down. I can't see them picking up any fewer than four seats, and if it's a big night for Obama, they could go as high as nine or ten.

Playground Picks: State Senate

The Playground Senate preview is going to be short because, well, there's just not a lot of interesting action over there. Here we go!

18th (GOP Hold) - This GOP-heavy seat, formerly held by Carol Roessler (R - Waunakee), will stay in GOP hands with Randy Hopper. This was certain long before Jessica King started picking off pedestrians with her vehicle.

Darling (GOP Hold) - Darling casts herself a moderate Republican in a district where a moderate Republican is about the only kind that can win. Sheldon Wasserman has gone through a lot of shoes this year knocking on doors, but nothing he's thrown at Darling has seemed to stick well enough to turn the tide.

Kapanke (GOP Hold) - GOP control of this seat will be saved by a likeable, moderate Republican with a high degree of name recognition. Never underestimate the power of hard work, pragmatism, and being nice.

Harsdorf (GOP Hold) - Word is that Senate leadership is a little afraid that Harsdorf might get swept under in an Obama tide. Guess those exurban residents of the Twin Cities aren't quite as Republican as some hoped. Gee, you think? But Harsdorf, like Kapanke, is a good fit for her district.

12th (Beats me) - The Democrats continue their "Back to the Future" plan with Jim Holperin, who was first elected to the Legislature over a generation ago, when I was in kindergarten. The Republicans counter with Tom Tiffany, a previous loser for the same seat. One need only look at the Assembly makeup of this district (Friske, Meyer, Mursau) to know which way this one should tip. Obama will likely manage a respectable performance, you've got John Gard on the ballot in part of the district, a competitive race between Jeff Mursau and "Back to the Future" co-captain Stan Gruszynski. I'm just going to sit back and watch. The Dems have no business holding this seat but, then again, they've held it for a long time.

Playground Predicts: GOP +1, Even, and Dem +1 (outcomes in order of likelihood)

And what do we learn from this? Rational, moderate Republicans like Kapanke, Harsdorf, and Darling will be what saves the Senate GOP from going down 2-3 seats. Has the AssGOP learned the same lesson in the lower house? Or will they ride a wave of wackos, crackpots, and e-book peddlers into the minority? Tune in tomorrow to find out when the Playground rolls out its eagerly-awaited Assembly picks!

First amendment protects politicians? So says Sarah!

A fascinating read on the First Amendment by Miss Wasilla:

"If (the media) convince enough voters that (it) is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations, then I don't know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media."

Once again, Sarah Palin nearly leaves me speechless. In case you forgot what it looks like, here's the text of the First Amendment:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

Because as we all know, the potential chilling effect that media criticism can have on the free speech rights of political candidates is huge.

The delusions of social conservativism.

While I often disagree with the theocrats of the right wing, I would never suggest that liberals disguise themselves like religious conservatives in order to make the right wing of the party look worse than it looks on its own.

So it humors me when I get comments like this from my socially conservative readers:

Well, there you have it.

Six Anonymous Democrats pose as Republicans to affirm BiPartisanShip ....from the Republican candidate.

So many of them can't believe that there are actually a lot of fiscally conservative individuals out there who have no desire to let rural voters and their Bible-thumping populist preachers determine the direction of the party. At least not without pointing out what a travesty they've turned the Republican Party into.

I suppose it's possible that some of my commenters are Democrats "disguising" themselves as disaffected Republicans. I also know there are many in the tin hat crowd who honestly want to believe this is how Democrats spend all their time - pretending to be Republicans in the comments section on my blog. Of course, there are also no Republicans who support gay marriage or oppose the teaching of creationism. Because those folks aren't really Republicans, they're just RINOs - God-hating RINOs who are trying to ruin America.

But there are millions of people out there just like me, whether social conservatives want to accept it or not. We're college educated, we have good jobs, we believe in fiscal responsibility, we believe in limited government, we have gay friends, and we don't care about abortion as a political issue. We attend church, we believe in God, and we have absolutely no problem not letting our religious beliefs dictate public policy.

There was a time when a real conservative, someone who believed in government staying out of people's lives, would've opposed amendments that discriminate against homosexuals because it was government intruding into things it didn't need to intrude in. Remember that even the political messiah of social conservatives, Ronald Reagan, publicly opposed a California ballot initiative in 1978 that would have prevented homosexuals from teaching in public schools.

But sadly, what President Bush has taught these people is that they should depend on the federal government to legislate their own religious mores as matters of public policy. So now, we get gay marriage amendments, and ridiculous faith-based initiatives, and Terri Schiavo, and abstinence-only sex education, and school boards trying to teach creationism in science class. Remember back when this insanity wasn't the defining characteristic of the Republican Party? I do. It wasn't so long ago.

To social conservatives, the power of government used to be something to fear, to oppose. Now, it's just something to be used to bludgeon others into submission. Their belief in limited government is conveniently set aside whenever government can help them get what they want. They are every bit as, if not more activist than the very people they profess to be saving America from - and the hypocrisy is nauseating.

And how are the other stalwarts of the GOP voting in response? With their feet and with their dollars. From FundRace.com, here are the percentage of donations to presidential and party committees by those self-identifying in the following professions:

"Lawyer": 65% Dem - 35% GOP
"Realtor": 62% Dem - 38% GOP
"Doctor": 52% Dem - 48% GOP
"Physician": 62% Dem - 38% GOP
"Small Business Owner": 50.5% Dem - 49.5% GOP
"Investment Banker": 52% Dem - 48% GOP

And perhaps more surprisingly...

"Minister": 64% Dem - 36% GOP
"Pastor": 53% Dem - 47% GOP

Something tells me it's not me and my crazy, moderate Republican friends who are driving the physicians and the realtors and the ministers into the arms of Barack Obama.