Considering that nobody I've talked to thinks the Hansen/VanderLeest race in the 30th will be even remotely close, I've been a bit blown away after a few days back in the homeland by the sheer volume of anti-VanderLeest ads. Now admittedly, we haven't seen this much juicy campaign fodder since Lee Meyerhofer and Dave Plombon. These things run during local news, the MLB All-Star Game, the ESPY's, on Comedy Central. They're probably on OWN and Lifetime too, to play up the wife-beating angle.
I don't think that the guy who reported raising $2,000 is going to pull the upset next week. But what I suspect is happening here is that the Democrats, who are already winning the fundraising war, are going to try and use this race as an exclamation point to get their donors pumped for the real races next month. +4 might be a stretch, but at this point ,+3 definitely doesn't appear to be out of the equation.
I don't think that the guy who reported raising $2,000 is going to pull the upset next week. But what I suspect is happening here is that the Democrats, who are already winning the fundraising war, are going to try and use this race as an exclamation point to get their donors pumped for the real races next month. +4 might be a stretch, but at this point ,+3 definitely doesn't appear to be out of the equation.
2 comments:
+2 seems to be a likely scenario to me. There are scenarios out there where +4 happens.
I think that it's entirely possible that the Dems pick up 4 and then lose one for a +3 net.
That's one of the more probable scenarios in my opinion.
Maybe I'm an optimist, and I'll admit I haven't seen a ton of polling, but I could see the Dems picking up 5 of the 6 Republican seats (losing in the Darling race) and losing Holperin for a +4.
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