And looking at these results, that's one sore puppy this morning.
Let's consider ten quick points.
1. In every race, Democratic candidates either finished at or below where they were polling - in some cases, way below where they were polling. You can't tell me the OWN crowd and the unions initiated and spent millions on these recalls to end up with results like Cowles +20, or Harsdorf +16.
2. Last night confirms what we learned in the Supreme Court race: every time the progressives try to crack the whip on the horse, they're inadvertently whipping the conservative horse too. And in some places, they're hitting the conservative horse twice. Alberta Darling went from a one-point nail-biter against Sheldon Wasserman in 2008 to an eight-point triumph against Sandy Pasch.
3. No matter what Democrats tell you, beating Dan Kapanke with a well-liked Representative in a Dem-trending district isn't much of a win. That area's been moving to the left since the Clinton administration. It was only a matter of time.
4. Jessica King barely beating a morally-compromised Randy Hopper is a sure sign that seat is heading back to the GOP column in 2012. Run someone without the personal baggage in a slightly more Republican district on the new maps, and Jessica would be well-advised to not quit her day job.
5. Nancy Nusbaum is even more of a lifeless retread than I expected her to be. Perhaps running a tepid, indecisive party-switcher wasn't such a good strategy. Look at it this way - Dave VanderLeest got outspent 30+ to 1 in that same area and he put up 34%. Outside groups spent millions to get Nusbaum six points better?
6. Wisconsin desperately needs to raise the bar on its recall process. If people can recall public officials who then win their subsequent elections by 15 or 20 points, all we're doing is wasting the time of our public officials and the money of our taxpayers. The easiest way to do that is to increase the signature threshold for these offices.
7. Luther Olsen's four-point win probably owes as much or more to anti-Clark sentiment than pro-Olsen sentiment. Conservatives routinely pick on Luther for being a moderate and for his family's ethanol interests. But when push came to shove, there are probably a number of conservative voters who were willing to put those differences aside to keep the Red-Light Runner from moving to the upper house.
8. Losing the Prosser race and then doubling down, only to fall short in the recalls, probably won't stop the left from doubling down again and trying to get Walker. But one has to think that all of these lukewarm results will leave a lot of potential Democratic gubernatorial prospects with cold feet. Feingold can't risk another statewide loss or his political career is over. Ron Kind may not be willing to give up his House seat, especially if the recall ends up on the November 2012 ballot. Steve Kagen's a joke. Dave Obey will do it just for the attention but he's washed up. Tom Barrett is damaged goods. Who's it going to be?
9. Democrats have to be concerned that last night's results might depress enthusiasm in next week's elections, which could be bad for Jim Holperin. The Wirch seat is irrelevant, since a) the GOP won't win it anyway and b) the GOP is giving the seat to the Democrats on the new map.
10. Dale Schultz is like the shining sun of the state Senate - no matter how hard people try otherwise, the damn body keeps revolving around him. For as much as partisans bemoan Schultz, he's a shrewd politician. He sees the trends in his own district, which is why he works so hard to play nice with the unions and the Democrats. A 17-16 majority puts him back in the spotlight yet again.
Let's consider ten quick points.
1. In every race, Democratic candidates either finished at or below where they were polling - in some cases, way below where they were polling. You can't tell me the OWN crowd and the unions initiated and spent millions on these recalls to end up with results like Cowles +20, or Harsdorf +16.
2. Last night confirms what we learned in the Supreme Court race: every time the progressives try to crack the whip on the horse, they're inadvertently whipping the conservative horse too. And in some places, they're hitting the conservative horse twice. Alberta Darling went from a one-point nail-biter against Sheldon Wasserman in 2008 to an eight-point triumph against Sandy Pasch.
3. No matter what Democrats tell you, beating Dan Kapanke with a well-liked Representative in a Dem-trending district isn't much of a win. That area's been moving to the left since the Clinton administration. It was only a matter of time.
4. Jessica King barely beating a morally-compromised Randy Hopper is a sure sign that seat is heading back to the GOP column in 2012. Run someone without the personal baggage in a slightly more Republican district on the new maps, and Jessica would be well-advised to not quit her day job.
5. Nancy Nusbaum is even more of a lifeless retread than I expected her to be. Perhaps running a tepid, indecisive party-switcher wasn't such a good strategy. Look at it this way - Dave VanderLeest got outspent 30+ to 1 in that same area and he put up 34%. Outside groups spent millions to get Nusbaum six points better?
6. Wisconsin desperately needs to raise the bar on its recall process. If people can recall public officials who then win their subsequent elections by 15 or 20 points, all we're doing is wasting the time of our public officials and the money of our taxpayers. The easiest way to do that is to increase the signature threshold for these offices.
7. Luther Olsen's four-point win probably owes as much or more to anti-Clark sentiment than pro-Olsen sentiment. Conservatives routinely pick on Luther for being a moderate and for his family's ethanol interests. But when push came to shove, there are probably a number of conservative voters who were willing to put those differences aside to keep the Red-Light Runner from moving to the upper house.
8. Losing the Prosser race and then doubling down, only to fall short in the recalls, probably won't stop the left from doubling down again and trying to get Walker. But one has to think that all of these lukewarm results will leave a lot of potential Democratic gubernatorial prospects with cold feet. Feingold can't risk another statewide loss or his political career is over. Ron Kind may not be willing to give up his House seat, especially if the recall ends up on the November 2012 ballot. Steve Kagen's a joke. Dave Obey will do it just for the attention but he's washed up. Tom Barrett is damaged goods. Who's it going to be?
9. Democrats have to be concerned that last night's results might depress enthusiasm in next week's elections, which could be bad for Jim Holperin. The Wirch seat is irrelevant, since a) the GOP won't win it anyway and b) the GOP is giving the seat to the Democrats on the new map.
10. Dale Schultz is like the shining sun of the state Senate - no matter how hard people try otherwise, the damn body keeps revolving around him. For as much as partisans bemoan Schultz, he's a shrewd politician. He sees the trends in his own district, which is why he works so hard to play nice with the unions and the Democrats. A 17-16 majority puts him back in the spotlight yet again.
7 comments:
Good to see someone being honest. Reading some of the 'lefty' blogs this morning has been rather sickeing. The democratic organization is in a sorry state. Watching the news last night was like listening to talk radio. The Republicans were sharp and articulate while the Democrats were stammering and mushy. Find a way to get your message out; you've been invisible for years. Maybe if there were a rational talk radio station, we could offset the full-time GOP advertisements coming from you-know-where.
Good stuff, thanks.
I agree - thanks for the post. Much as I try to follow along, I just don't really know much about the real people and mechanics beyond the superficial.
Good insight. Great read.
It is clear the dems are down and out. All of my lefty friends on facebook have gone silent...
Solid points, especially #10. But #2 is off. That door swings both ways (see 2006 referendum on gay marriage pertaining to legislative seats containing UW schools). Speaking of banner Dem years, your connection b/w Wasserman's spread and Pasch's is very weak. '08 was a banner Dem year, which is the only reason the Doctor was even close. Any normal year and he would have been lucky to do as well as Pasch.
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