Someone asked my thoughts on what effect I thought the Feingold announcement would have on the efforts to recall Scott Walker. Fair enough.
Before we delve into that question, we must recognize that so long as there are organizations employed in political hackery that can use an issue to raise money for themselves, there are going to be organizations who will push the recall regardless of its chances for success. In other words, One Wisconsin Now probably isn't the best source for objective analysis of the gubernatorial landscape.
That said, five quick thoughts on a gubernatorial recall.
1. You can't beat something with nothing. The first thing the Democrats need is a probable candidate.
2. If the Democrats can't convince Ron Kind to run in a recall, they probably don't have another candidate who can win. Senate Democrats are tainted by fleeing the state, there's no real bench in the Assembly, and the only constitutional office the Democrats hold is SOS. Somehow, I don't see this being a late-career breakout moment for Doug La Follette.
3. If Dave Obey runs, he'll be the new Walter Mondale. Liberals thought the problem with Jimmy Carter was that he wasn't far enough to the left. So they ran Mondale in '84 and were handed the second-worst defeat in modern presidential history. I'd have compared Obey to George McGovern, who endured the worst defeat, but McGovern at least ran on principle. Like Mondale, Obey's a machine Democrat whose greatest political accomplishment is the copious amount of pork he brought back to his district. But Dave Obey will gladly run because he likes power and overestimates his own popularity. Do everyone a favor, Dave. Stay home and play your harmonica.
4. If the Democrats recall Scott Walker but lose the election, it is a virtual certainty that they will lose again in 2014. At some point - if it hasn't already begun - Democrats will lose support in the middle among people who are tired of them forcing voters into a perpetual campaign. For as much as Democrats think average people dislike Scott Walker, I assure you they dislike the commercials, the IE robocalls during dinner, the door knocking by out-of-state volunteers, and the junk in their mailboxes way more.
5. Don't underestimate the wishes of Obama's political team. In all likelihood, after all the signature counting, challenging, and assorted lawyering up, a gubernatorial recall ends up on a November ballot. That race will likely dominate the presidential election in terms of interest. The question for Team Obama is whether that helps him or hurts him in Wisconsin. If their determination is that it hurts Obama, or is a wild card with which they don't want to risk dealing, there could be pressure on DPW and other left-leaning interest groups to let it go and move on.
Before we delve into that question, we must recognize that so long as there are organizations employed in political hackery that can use an issue to raise money for themselves, there are going to be organizations who will push the recall regardless of its chances for success. In other words, One Wisconsin Now probably isn't the best source for objective analysis of the gubernatorial landscape.
That said, five quick thoughts on a gubernatorial recall.
1. You can't beat something with nothing. The first thing the Democrats need is a probable candidate.
2. If the Democrats can't convince Ron Kind to run in a recall, they probably don't have another candidate who can win. Senate Democrats are tainted by fleeing the state, there's no real bench in the Assembly, and the only constitutional office the Democrats hold is SOS. Somehow, I don't see this being a late-career breakout moment for Doug La Follette.
3. If Dave Obey runs, he'll be the new Walter Mondale. Liberals thought the problem with Jimmy Carter was that he wasn't far enough to the left. So they ran Mondale in '84 and were handed the second-worst defeat in modern presidential history. I'd have compared Obey to George McGovern, who endured the worst defeat, but McGovern at least ran on principle. Like Mondale, Obey's a machine Democrat whose greatest political accomplishment is the copious amount of pork he brought back to his district. But Dave Obey will gladly run because he likes power and overestimates his own popularity. Do everyone a favor, Dave. Stay home and play your harmonica.
4. If the Democrats recall Scott Walker but lose the election, it is a virtual certainty that they will lose again in 2014. At some point - if it hasn't already begun - Democrats will lose support in the middle among people who are tired of them forcing voters into a perpetual campaign. For as much as Democrats think average people dislike Scott Walker, I assure you they dislike the commercials, the IE robocalls during dinner, the door knocking by out-of-state volunteers, and the junk in their mailboxes way more.
5. Don't underestimate the wishes of Obama's political team. In all likelihood, after all the signature counting, challenging, and assorted lawyering up, a gubernatorial recall ends up on a November ballot. That race will likely dominate the presidential election in terms of interest. The question for Team Obama is whether that helps him or hurts him in Wisconsin. If their determination is that it hurts Obama, or is a wild card with which they don't want to risk dealing, there could be pressure on DPW and other left-leaning interest groups to let it go and move on.
1 comment:
Good contrast between Mondale and McGovern. I wasn't alive for either race but from what I've heard, McGovern was too outside the Democratic convention to win and Mondale was too much of a conventional Dem to excite anybody.
But I don't think Obey overestimates his popularity. If he did, he probably would have run for re-election in 2010. Didn't he decide not to run after commissioning a poll (which we can assume showed lackluster loyalty from constituents)?
2014 is a long way away. I agree that people have already grown tired of the campaign, but I don't think people will hold it against them for too long if Walker is unpopular come 2014. That is, unless the Dems run Barrett in both '12 and '14.
Also, don't underestimate the bitterness grassroot Dems feel towards Kind, especially when their signature issue is labor. The left sees Ron Kind as a corporate sellout who enables Walker's corporate agenda.
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